Wednesday, May 07, 2014

The Corruption of Science, Climate Change and the NCA

Earlier this week the US released what it calls The National Climate Assessment (NCA). This documents purports to be a comprehensive, arms-length, scientifically based analysis of the evidence with respect to the impact of climate change in the US. It suggested, with a high degree of confidence, the impact of man-made climate change was already evident and is the primary cause of extreme weather events. The press coverage was generally “naïve acceptance” and certainly uncritical.  The press also fell for the line that the “science is settled” and that “this analysis is purely scientific”.

The report is, like the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), political – it is agenda driven science. For example, the idea that the only cause of climate change is CO2 produced by industrial processes and mankind, is a political position not really supported by climate scientists.  The idea that sea level rises are likely to be eleven times higher than over the last one hundred years is not supported by most scientists. The idea that the earth continues to warm is not supported by an analysis of actual temperature data – there has been no global warming for 17 years and 9 months according to these data. The idea that hurricanes and tornadoes are increasing in the US is bunkum – their frequency and intensity has declines 25% since 1900.

Don’t take my word for this, take that of Professor Judith Curry, Roger Pielke Snr. or his son Roger Pielke Jnr. – all climate scientists. All have been highly critical of the NCA. Their key points:

  •            The uncertainties associated with the science are greater than the confidence levels expressed in the NCA as the document itself makes clear. Thus, the claims of what will happen are exaggerated – the science is that certain.
  •            Climate models, on which a lot of the NCA appears to be based, are not very robust when it comes to predicting climate – they have not predicted the pause in global warming, the lowering of the rate of sea level rise or the significant growth of ice extent in the Antarctic.
  •            The NCA is inconsistent with the IPCC. The latest report on the science from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and analysis provided by the adminstration’s own National Climatic Data Center conclude that there isn’t a case for extreme weather increases – no significant trends for floods, droughts, hurricanes or tornadoes. All of these reports are based on a meta-analysis of the same science that the NCA looks at. How can they come to a radically different conclusion?
  •         The idea that all climate change has a single cause – manmade C02 – is not well founded in science. Indeed, Judith Curry makes the observation that the phrase ‘climate change’ is now officially meaningless.  The NCA report effectively implies that there is no climate change other than what is caused by humans, and that extreme weather events are equivalent to climate change.  Any increase in adverse impacts from extreme weather events or sea level rise is caused by humans. Possible scenarios of future climate change depend only on emissions scenarios that are translated into warming by climate models that produce far more warming than has recently been observed. This is clearly non-sense and non-science.
  •             The suggestion that the science makes clear that reducing emissions is “the one way” we can reduce extreme weather events is also non-science and non-sense. The evidence makes clear that the primary reason that the impact of severe weather is greater now than in the past is because we have given permission for more building on flood-plains, more building in vulnerable coastal areas and more building in the established areas of vulnerability from tornadoes and hurricanes. Smarter planning, adaptation to changes in climate are as valid a response. Reducing CO2 emissions unilaterally from one country will also have very little impact on man-made CO2 emissions globally. Climate is global and local. This is the most political component of the NCA – and makes clear that the report was designed to present this solution (reduce and act on emissions and we can avoid these dangers): policy based evidence.


The preoccupation with CO2 is getting in the way of understanding climate, climate change and the opportunities of benefits from these changes together with risk. More and more genuine scientists are abandoning the IPCC / NCA narrative in favour of science. Recent converts include several IPCC authors and  scientists who have previously been IPCC / NCA supporters. The edifice is getting more desperate and more extreme. The NCA report is an example of how extreme things are getting.

What makes things worse is the fawning press. The job of the press is to sell newspapers or secure and sustain “eyeballs” (viewers). Doom sells. Threats sell. Poor science and critical analysis of poor science does not. Given that so few journalists have a real training in science and critical analysis of science, it is not surprising that uncritical journalism is what we see. This feeds the political agenda.

President Obama now has the “cover” he needs to enact sweeping regulation through the EPA – by-passing a sceptical Congress – to curb C02 emissions, stop Keystone pipeline, curb fracking, end coal based energy and change emissions requirements for transportation. There could also be new taxes on emission and new subsidies for so-called “green energy”. This is why the science in the NCA says what it says. Follow the money and the current democratic / left / green agenda. The fact that this science is partial, flawed and hysterical is not the point – that fact that it is aligned is.


The corruption of science in this field in the US is now complete. We need to rely on scientists not beholden to the political agenda to let us see the real evidence and analysis. It is not at all what the NCA are presenting.

Monday, May 05, 2014

Jeff Johnson and the Temple of Doom

What is the problem that Alberta Education Minister Jeff Johnson is trying to solve with the report of the Task Force for Teacher Excellence?

The task force - which did not involve the profession or the professional body established in law to be responsible for the profession – reported today at a showcase event stage managed by the Minister, who also spent the week-end briefing the media (but not the profession). The suggestion is that this task force is “arms length” from government is about as serious as the suggestion that Mayor Rob Ford is an arms length from a few drinks or crack cocaine.

There are around 35,000 teachers in Alberta and Alberta is amongst the highest performing education systems in the world. Recently, our Minister was celebrating teacher excellence. So what is the problem?

The fiction is that, with 35,000 teachers we must have some “dud” teachers – yet no teacher has been dismissed for poor performance in the last decade. Therefore we must have a problem and that education in Alberta could be improved if we changed how we assess and reward teachers. Jeff Johnson, a Xerox salesman, has been floating this thinking for years.

The problem, this mystical thinking goes, is that those who supervise teachers – Principals – are members of the same organization as the teachers themselves. Worse. Once certified, teachers do not have to be recertified as teachers and are not paid by merit but by length of service. Therefore, if you are following this line of thought, teachers should be evaluated frequently (every 3-5 years) by Principals and to do this, Principals should not be part of the same professional body as teachers. What is more, merit should be recognized by merit pay. These two things will improve education in Alberta – already among one of the best systems in the world. Since the Alberta Teachers’ Association (ATA) will likely oppose these changes, the thinking goes, we will need to change the ATA.

These major changes to the profession require considerable thought, so thirty days should do for feedback.

Where to start? First, who gave this Minister a mandate to so misunderstand what teachers do and how they do it that he feels able to undertake this work without truly engaging the profession in this conversation? Imagine a task force on medical competence and effectiveness in which doctors were not engaged or a task force on policing efficiency and effectiveness in which active officers were not engaged? Difficult to imagine isn’t it. Yet that happened in this case.

Second, what is the evidential base on which these recommendations are being made? Where is the evidence of the need for this enhanced bureaucracy – which is where this will lead – so as to deal with a problem we don’t really have? Principals currently do supervise and assess, teachers are highly engaged in professional development, the system performance is strong. The ATA doesn’t have to deal with performance issues – they are dealt with locally.

Third, what evidence was reviewed about the impact of merit pay on professional workers? There are no compelling examples of merit pay for teachers having an impact on pupil performance. Worse, there is evidence that such schemes generally distort the work of teachers and distract school systems from their work.

Fourth, what is the Government of Alberta in the year if three Premiers doing alienating in the most deliberate way one of the largest professional bodies in the Province? Is it systematically trying to lose the next election and make it impossible for the major changes in education, which Premier Hancock championed as Minister of Education and on which all involved in the system were aligned, to take place? Minister Johnson has, during his tenure, ensured that this critical work is now on life support. The Government were given opportunities to meet with the ATA and side-step these issues, but the response of the government was silence.

Finally, the major curriculum changes now underway are now most unlikely to receive the support of teachers if teachers are in such fundamental opposition to the work of the Minister. This is unfortunate. There is a great deal of support for change and for the direction of these changes, though there are also concerns at the speed at which these changes could occur. The Minister is not the ministry and a genuine and honest attempt is being made to ensure that Alberta’s emerging curriculum meets the need of the Alberta the world needs to see. It would be unfortunate for this important work to be impossible to progress, but this is now likely to be the case.


It is a sad day for innovative spirits, committed teachers and professionals in Alberta. A smart Premier would act to stop the nonsense.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

About Earth Day

On earth day, we are supposed to think that the planet is in peril and that somehow humans are the cause of this peril. This is not the case. The human impact on global climate is small, and any warming that may occur as a result of human carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions is likely to have little effect on global temperatures, the cryosphere (ice-covered areas), hydrosphere (oceans, lakes, and rivers), or weather. This is according to hundreds of peer reviewed studies examined by the Non Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in a March 2014 study (see here). Indeed, atmospheric C02 from all sources (human contribution to the CO2 in the atmosphere is small) is showing beneficial effects.

As Lomborg notes, the biggest threat to the environment is air pollution – using dung and twigs to heat, light and cook. Close to three billion people do this every day. This leads to strokes, heart disease and cancer, and disproportionately affects women and children. The World Health Organization estimates that it killed 4.3 million people in 2012. Add the smaller death count from outdoor pollution, and air pollution causes one in eight deaths worldwide.

In the rich world, most other environmental indicators have improved dramatically. All developed countries have slashed their outdoor air pollution and handled much of their water pollution, while even strongly regulating small risks like pesticides and other chemical fears. In the developed world, rivers just don’t catch fire as the Cuyahoga River did just before the first Earth Day.

In the developing world, the overall environment has also gotten better because of the dramatic drop in indoor air pollution. Outdoor air pollution has risen — but this only confirms a long-standing finding that some environmental indicators tend to first get worse, then better, with economic development.

By focusing on global climate change, we miss opportunities to do something practical and useful about air pollution. By focusing on CO2 we miss the point completely – that the real issue is raising people out of poverty, so that they use fuels and cooking materials which are less likely to pollute the air and more likely to promote health.

By focusing on predictions of doom – the most recent IPCC report suggests yet another tipping point (calling Woolf just once too often) – rather on practical actions that can be taken to switch to natural gas, enable fracking to bring on more low cost gas and help larger numbers rise from poverty, Earth Day becomes a rant for the liberal elite to berate us all.


Thursday, March 20, 2014

Mind the Gap - Alberta Politics Post Redford and the Future of the Progressive Conservative Party

Premier Redford’s decision to resign showed common sense. There was no way should survive the coming onslaught from the Progressive Conservative Party’s own leadership – the rank and file and the constituency associations. The Presidents of these associations were about to meet as she resigned to ask her to do just that.

While she was a flawed leader (see here for why), the real issue facing the Progressive Conservative party is not leadership, but purpose. Why do they exist and why should they expect the people of Alberta to continue to support them after forty three years in power?

The Premier gave emphasis to the word “progressive” in her resignation speech. She did so for a reason. Alberta is a very liberal and progressive Province and becoming more so. It values equality of opportunity, fairness, transparency and outcome based investment by government. It does not value elites, favouritism, privilege and policies which ensure that the rich get richer, the middle class get poorer and the poor remain poor. If anything, Alberta is the engine of progressive thinking in Canada, despite the views of the young Trudeau.

A true progressive conservative party would now increase taxes and revenues to pay for better education, better health care, more support for those in need. It would systematically attack poverty, homelessness and growing youth unemployment. It would focus on enhancing access to skills development and opportunities for lifelong learning and would invest in the infrastructure of the Province. If this takes managed debt, so be it. If this takes increase royalty payments from oil and gas, so be it. Changing the mind set about taxes so as to achieve social benefits which increase the opportunities for wealth creation should be the cornerstone of progressive politics.

Another critical component of such a progressive approach would be to seek genuine and meaningful partnership with those who can make public services work and perform – public servants, doctors, nurses, teachers, teaching assistants, social workers. The present government has systematically and deliberately alienated exactly these workers – the very people who ensured their election two years ago. They have attacked them, their rights and their pensions. Its time to stop and to look for a re-engagement of civic leadership and public sector employers in the work of building the Alberta the world needs to see.

I know that this sounds like a liberal agenda, but few in Alberta will vote Liberal while Raj Sherman is leading. Even fewer will vote NDP while Brian Mason leads – his “use by” date is long past. Sadly, the Alberta Party is yet to make headway, though if ever there were a time for it to start to step up to the plate it is now.

What happens next for the PC Party will tell us everything we need to know. Clearly there will be some interim arrangements while the party discovers its next leader. Pay some but not much attention to this. If all of the leadership candidates are from the existing front bench then the party is dead at the next election. What it truly needs is a fresh leadership face – someone who will be a “game changer”.  Anyone within the cabinet ranks right now has too many bodies buried and too many debts to pay. A new broom can truly sweep clean.

Stephen Mandel, former Mayor of Edmonton, is the kind of person we may need. Some tell me he is a liberal – so was Ralph Klein. Some tell me he is too old. He is younger than Ronald Reagan was when he won the Presidency of the United States. He is a skilled, collaborative politician with a record of getting things done.  He knows how to engage and broker alliances and he has the patience to see the long-game – just look at the Rogers Arena.

Rona Ambrose, Federal Minister of Health and Vice Chair of Treasury Board and MP for Edmonton-Spruce Grove, is another possibility. True, she is a tried and tested and familiar politician. But she would be a fresh face to Alberta Provincial politics and brings a wealth of experience to local politics from surviving goodness knows how many shuffles, debacles and midnight coups in the federal domain. A smart, articulate and skilled politician, she would bring new blood to the game.

The last person the party needs is one of the current front bench. The leadership of the party should be systematically looking outside the party elite to change the game and wrong-foot the Wildrose Party.  They should rethink their policy position and not fall back on mantra’s that were appropriate for the 80’s and 90’s of the last century. A 21st Century Progressive Conservative Party with new leadership and fresh thinking could do very well.

Lets just take a small bet: none of what needs to happen will happen. We will get more of the same and have a wild ride election sooner rather than later.

Welcome to the red zone and “mind the gap”, as they say on the London underground.


There is  gaping hole – the PC Party could leap across and show its imaginative side or could ensure that the hole becomes a sink hole.

Monday, March 17, 2014

A Premier on Probation: Premier Alison Redford and the Future of Alberta

Let us begin by acknowledging that Premier Alison Redford is a very intelligent woman. She is able to understand complex issues and simplify them; she is able to analyze a lot of information and ask appropriate and insightful questions; she can develop and sustain a complex argument as befits a lawyer; she can examine and challenge evidence; she can lay out a “model, frame or theory” and defend it. These are fine qualities very much needed in a leader.


She has also managed a very successful career – a solid legal reputation in the field of human rights, policy advisor and think-tank contributor in Canada and abroad and a true professional. She also respects professionals as her peers – something at least two previous Premiers of Alberta did not.


But these qualities are not enough to lead a Province through a time of rapid growth and the rethinking of its social institutions. What is missing is an ability to relate and connect to people as well as to ideas; an ability to build trust and an acceptance of the foibles of others; an ability to accept that others will not share her view or idea sand that this is not only acceptable, but also to be welcomed. She needs to connect, engage, develop trust and inspire confidence. She does none of these things.


She also needs to communicate with the people in Alberta in a way that does not leave them seeing her as arrogant, imperious and “entitled”. This is how many see her now.  She is so distanced from the Albertans she is so fond of referring to that they no longer regard her as one of their own.


She needs to inspire confidence and show passion for a vision of Alberta and be able to lead a team of competent people who can demonstrate their effective ability to deliver and execute change related to this vision. She does not inspire confidence, has not communicated a vision, is too abstract to show passion and conviction and has not surrounded herself with people who appear skilled and confident. Witness the hapless Minister of Education reeling at criticisms of needed changes to the Alberta school curriculum or the dazed Minister of Health or…we could go on.


She has been accused of being a bully and of being subject to temper tantrums. More than one person has shared this view of her and it is such a common a story across Ministers and senior public servants, as well as amongst her security detail, that the evidence appears strong (but circumstantial) to be true. One former colleague of the laywer Redford told me “she has always been a screamer!”. Not good.


It has been suggested by eminent Progressive Conservative veterans that the party cannot possibly win the next election with Premier Redford as its leader. This seems to me, on the basis of polling data and known disaffection amongst rank and file party organizers (as well as being reflected in falling donations to the party), to be a correct analysis at this time. As Harold Wilson, onetime Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, “a week is a long time in politics” and there is some time to go before the next Alberta election. But the signs are not good.


Given all this, it is therefore very surprising that the PC executive put the Premier on probation at a meeting over this last weekend rather than asking her to resign. She is to be given “a work plan” and she has agreed in principle to follow it. 


Imagine the Primer Minister of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, the German Chancellor, the President of the United States or the Governor of Massachusetts being “on probation”?  Difficult isn’t it. In fact it makes no sense. Alsion Redford is now and will in the future be the Alison Redford we can see and have experience of. She will not change. As a psychologist, such change requires significant intervention by effective psychologists and experts in organizational change. No one in the inner circle has these skills. What we see is what we will get.



The Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta is in denial. It will lose the next election unless significant change occurs. This change requires: (a) a clear and compelling vision for what Alberta needs to become; (b) a clear plan of action for the next Alberta; (c) a genuine attempt to engage and involve Albertans in the work of building the next Alberta; and (d) new leadership and several new faces in that leadership, including a new Premier. It’s a big task. But if it doesn’t start now, the Wildrose Party – Alberta’s official opposition – will deliver on all of these things.


Part of the problem within the progressive conservative party is the absence of a clear new leader and appropriate team to support that person within it. The view is that there is no “obvious” candidate. While there are various umours of interest from Jim Dinning (not yesterdays man, but last decades man) and Gary Mar (clearly disengaged), neither of these “fit the bill” for a new face for the Party. Indeed, it would be Mr. Dressup for the Party – more of the same, just dressed differently.


Two other people could do exactly what is required – Stephen Mandel  (former Mayor of Edmonton) or Rona Ambrose  (an Edmonton MP and very successful federal cabinet MP) – but the party would have to be ready for change and energetic in recruiting one of these individuals. The sad fact, as demonstrated by the actions taking by the executive of the party this last week-end, is that they are not. In these circumstances, no one in their right mind would step forward and offer an agenda for change and the future at the present time.


Over the week-end I suggested that what happened to the PC’s could be compared to someone diagnosed with cancer who seeks a back rub or homeopathic remedy when we know that the treatment needs to an aggressive strategy to replace the cancer cells with new cells which are healthy. Homeopathy doesn’t work. Neither will putting the Premier on Probation.

The consequences for Alberta are serious. Senior government officials know that they are working in an atmosphere of high uncertainty which could change at any moment and that their political masters are often distracted and disengaged from the real work of Government - governing. They also know that some of the decisions that are being made are about positioning for the future ambitions of their Minister. Decisions have been slow in any case under this administration – they are slower now.


They also know that we are effectively in a permanent “red zone”, where controversial decisions which need to be made will not be. The general advice is to “keep your head down”, otherwise you will see the consequences. This is all made worse by an unwarranted attack on public sector employees in various Bills introduced in 2013 and on public sector pensions. Some of our most talented public servants are looking to leave or have left. Alberta needs high quality, independent thinking public servants who are respected across government and by the public who give independent advice to Ministers. We are gradually losing our independent public service.


Alberta cannot tolerate the ambiguity and uncertainty within its Government. It leads to poor decisions, delay and compromise. If ever there was a time for bold, inspiring action it is now. A Premier on Probation will not deliver this.